Langley’s conviction will be put to the test Christmas Day, when Les Mis opens on more than 2,800 screens domestically, following a marketing blitz that has lasted for months.Ī late entry into the Oscar race, the movie was screened at full capacity, first in New York at the 1,110- seat Alice Tully Hall, then in Los Angeles for six guild presentations. “But the title comes with great pre-awareness, and combined with an incredible cast, the package ended up being really exciting.” “Sure, there was discussion,” says Universal Pictures co-chairman Donna Langley, who backed one of the rare recent musical successes, 2008’s Mamma Mia!, which earned $610 million worldwide.

But this is probability none of it is fact.”Īnd as every film executive knows, at some point you have to trust your gut.

While Fellner won’t reveal what the computer predicted, he argues: “What’s the point of spending $1 million of development money on something that will never get made? We use our experience and knowledge, and everything else gets generated on an algorithm model. In other words, he tried to Nate Silver the movie’s chances of success. The staffer put the adaptation of Victor Hugo’s 1862 novel through proprietary computer simulations to estimate box office, examining data from 5,000 other films, including period pieces, movies with the same potential lead actors and other musicals. “We have an in-house person in charge of that,” he notes. Making an entirely-sung $61 million period piece (it would have cost a lot more without Britain’s hefty tax credits) was daunting enough that Fellner did extensive computerized research - something he has been doing on each Working Title production since 1997 - before he and Universal went ahead.

PHOTOS: ‘Les Miserables’: Anne Hathaway, Hugh Jackman Pose for THR

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